Marvel Rivals: A Bold Break in a Challenging Year for Live Services

Identifying turning points can be challenging: they may seem obvious in retrospect, but are difficult to pinpoint as they unfold. False positives are common; various factors can appear crucial in the moment, only to prove much less significant over time.

This may relate to a general tendency to underestimate the overwhelming force of inertia. Particularly in an industry like video games, where development cycles can extend for years, altering course is akin to steering an oil tanker – even events that seem highly consequential may have minimal real impact on the trajectory of publishers and studios.

All of this leads me to be cautious about declaring that 2024 has been a transformational year for the industry’s enthusiasm for live service models. I’m aware of how many projects are still sluggishly progressing, fueled by a toxic mix of inertia and sunk-cost fallacy, tempered only by a glimmer of hope (and plenty of coping mechanisms).

However, there is undoubtedly a change in the atmosphere – discussions around the benefits of live service models have become more sensible and rational, and executives who have spent the past few years convinced that every IP in their catalogue was the next Fortnite have finally started to temper their expectations. If this hasn’t been a landmark year, it at least suggests that 2025 could see product planning meetings evaluating the pros and cons of live service models in a more balanced way, rather than behaving like wild-eyed speculators in a gold rush.

The cause of this sudden realization regarding live service games is, of course, that 2024 has been particularly brutal for many high-profile releases. Sony’s Harmony serves as the latest example of a failed live service game – shuttered after only a matter of weeks, and unfortunately taking its studio down with it – but as dramatic as this incident may seem, it aligns with the year’s theme. Harmony never appeared destined for success, struggling to generate consumer interest from the start.

Executives who have spent the previous few years convinced that every IP in their catalogue was the next Fortnite have finally started to temper their expectations.

We also saw what are effectively end-of-life announcements for titles whose failures were arguably much more difficult to predict. Warner Bros’ Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League and Ubisoft’s XDefiant are both on their way out; the former based on a popular DC Comics IP and created by Arkham series veterans Rocksteady, and the latter launched in May to much fanfare about amassing millions of players in a very short period of time.

There are certainly specific reasons for the failures of each of these titles. You could analyze them on an individual basis and dissect their shortcomings. Harmony was a hero shooter with an astonishingly uninspired and dull character roster (which, both visually and in terms of abilities, is arguably the single most critical aspect of a hero shooter), Suicide Squad made the perplexing decision to task players with eliminating the characters they actually wanted to play as, and XDefiant, while significantly better overall than the other two, found itself competing directly with Call of Duty (and somewhat less directly with Apex Legends) and simply couldn’t maintain its momentum against that titan.

The specifics of each case, however, do not alter the overarching trend; costly live service video games have proven to be an extremely risky venture in 2024. This trend extends beyond the games mentioned; Square Enix effectively terminated support for Marvel’s Avengers last year and canceled plans for additional Foamstars development (despite it only launching in February), while Ubisoft’s long-delayed Skull & Bones flopped at launch, to name just a few more examples.

Some publishers have already begun to sense this risk and pull back, such as Sega, which canceled Creative Assembly’s extraction shooter Hyenas before it even made it to market. This isn’t a brand-new trend, at least – you could trace it all the way back to the likes of Bioware’s ill-fated Anthem as a case of well-established developers finding themselves ensnared in their attempts to launch live service games.

However, there are significant nuances at play here. Live service games are complicated, challenging, and incredibly risky, but we shouldn’t throw the baby out with the bathwater – although consumers have become much more skeptical and critical of these games lately (with good reason), that doesn’t eliminate the potential for major success in this arena.

2024 may be remembered for its live service failures, but it was also bookended by successes. Helldivers 2 emerged as the surprise hit of the first half of the year; meanwhile, NetEase may have cracked the code for developing a successful live service game with the Marvel IP, as its hero shooter Marvel Rivals has been met with a very positive response from players in its initial weeks on the market.

The features that these successful (so far) games possess must be analyzed alongside the factors that led other titles to fail. Each of them boasts a clear, memorable identity – the satirical Starship Troopers-esque tone of Helldivers 2 sets it apart from nearly everything else available, while Marvel Rivals distinguishes itself with expertly crafted designs.