Nintendo Switch 2: Projected to Sell Up to 20 Million Units in Its Inaugural Year
By Prominent analysts within the gaming sector anticipate that the Nintendo Switch 2 could potentially match or surpass its predecessor in first-year sales, although this is by no means guaranteed and depends on Nintendo’s ability to have sufficient inventory available.
To recap briefly, the Nintendo Switch sold approximately 15 million units worldwide during its inaugural year in 2017 before reaching around 150 million consoles in subsequent years. It is intriguing, then, to observe reports indicating that Nintendo is prepared to sell 20 million Switch 2 units in the console’s first year.
Nintendo seems to have high expectations for the console, although several factors we’ve witnessed with launches like the PS5, such as scalping, may also play a role in determining how many units are available for sale. To gain deeper insight into whether Nintendo can achieve such sales, we’ve reached out to a few former analysts to understand what the upcoming year may bring.
According to Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of the Japanese gaming consultancy firm Kantan Games, selling 20 million units is “definitely feasible” if Nintendo can deliver that many in the first year. “There is considerable pent-up demand, particularly among Nintendo’s dedicated fans who have been eager for an upgrade for years,” he adds.
In contrast, Circana’s gaming expert Mat Piscatella maintains a more reserved outlook, although he largely sees the Nintendo Switch 2 exceeding its predecessor’s performance.
“Currently, I project that the Switch 2 will sell around 4.3 million units in the U.S. during the 2025 calendar year,” he states. “If we estimate globally, that translates to approximately 14-17 million in total in calendar 2025. Naturally, initial year sales tend to be constrained by how many units are produced and where those units are distributed, so we’ll need to monitor how production ramps up for the Switch 2.”
Over the long term, Piscatella anticipates that the Switch 2 will be a “huge success,” even though he doesn’t expect it to reach the record-breaking levels of Nintendo’s original Switch console. “It’s challenging to make predictions for such an anomaly,” he remarks. “While it’s possible, it’s not very likely.”
Weekly updates, stories from the communities you care about, and more
As both analysts point out, the Switch 2 can certainly represent a significant win for Nintendo without achieving the extraordinary success of its famed predecessor.