“Analyst Forecasts Intense Early Demand for Swap 2, Predicts PS5 Will Dominate US Hardware Sales by 2025”

With a Nintendo Switch 2 announcement anticipated soon alongside growing hardware leaks and third-party prototypes, former analyst and Circana games leader Mat Piscatella forecasts that the new console will sell 4.3 million units in the US by the end of 2025, presuming it launches in the first half of the year, despite potential supply limitations due to high initial demand.

Piscatella offered a brief overview of his expectations for 2025 in a Bluesky post, stating, “considering an announcement seems imminent (but one can never be sure).” The condition that the Switch 2 launches in the first half of 2025 allows for some flexibility regarding the specific months it could hit the market this calendar year.

“I anticipate hardware constraints for several months after a significant initial demand spike,” Piscatella mentioned. “And sales will, naturally, depend on manufacturing capabilities and production resources.”

In a follow-up statement, Piscatella explained, “supply constraints aligned with/influenced by initial demand surge. However, this is merely an assumption; I lack information on [manufacturing] resources allocated to this project.”

“I still expect the PlayStation 5 to maintain its position as the top-selling console in the US throughout the year,” he concluded.

To frame the timing of this prediction, we can confirm that Nintendo will reveal the Switch 2, or whatever it is officially named, by the end of March, though this announcement could very well come sooner. The actual release date for the console remains less certain. The original Switch was unveiled in October 2016 and released in March 2017, so a Switch 2 debut in the first half of 2025 seems likely. Recent rumors suggest an April launch at the earliest.

Piscatella previously informed GamesRadar+ that, compared to PlayStation and Xbox in the console market, Nintendo follows its own path “to some degree,” although perhaps “not as much as Nintendo itself might think.”

“Its sales patterns are somewhat different from how consumers typically purchase Nintendo devices alongside a PlayStation, Xbox, or PC,” he remarked, adding later that “you use the term supplemental and people interpret, ‘Oh no, that’s secondary to you.’ However, that isn’t accurate at all. Nintendo devices do enhance a player’s gaming experience, right? Not in a subordinate or inferior way. They can be the most-used device, but they are often owned alongside other kinds of gaming systems. This is beneficial, as it adds variety. [Their] market position and sales trajectories are simply distinct.