Analyst Predictions: Switch 2 Set to Thrive, But Will It Reach the Heights of Its Predecessor?

The Nintendo Switch 2 was officially revealed this week, but one analyst we talked to does not believe it will achieve the same remarkable success as its predecessor.

“Switch 2 can (and I anticipate it will) be a significant triumph. However, I also don’t believe it will match the original Switch. It’s challenging to predict for an exception. It could occur, but it’s improbable,” Mat Piscatella, the Circana games lead, shares with us.

“It’s wonderful that it appears to be a larger, more robust Switch. Fantastic. Exactly what players desired and expected,” he adds. “Yet, it primarily seems to be a larger, more powerful Switch, which might not suffice to draw in a crowd beyond the original Switch buyers.”

For Switch enthusiasts, the Switch 2 is monumental, but Piscatella is correct in stating that there doesn’t appear to be much to convert skeptics. Not to mention the Joy-Con’s apparent mouse functionality which is crucial for genres like RTS and FPS.

“This announcement lacked substantial details,” Piscatella continues. “There might be additional insights that have not surfaced yet and that have not been leaked in any way. It seems we will have to wait for the Direct for further information.” This sentiment is echoed by another analyst who attributes the reason for Nintendo’s stock value dropping following the trailer reveal.

So, what is Piscatella’s take on the new console? “In one word, it’s decent,” he tells us. “On paper, the Switch 2 branding, along with its larger and more powerful design, appear to be a very intelligent and low-risk method to introduce it to the market. The naming strategy ensures that this is recognized as a successor to the Switch, and anyone encountering it will understand its purpose.”

As Sony has opted for sequential numbers for its consoles and
“`Microsoft has a history of unique titles, while Nintendo has generally opted for a mixture. The GameBoy, GameBoy Color, GameBoy Advance, and GameBoy Advance SP, along with the DS, DSi, and 3DS, are all evident variations of one another, but this may be the first instance where the company has truly gone for a straightforward numeric designation.

“The significant (‘good problem to have’) issue is that the Switch has been an extraordinary success,” Piscatella clarifies. “It stands out in many aspects, especially in terms of its sales and the duration of its success. Some titles released for it continue to rank among the highest-selling games month after month, even years later.”

Nintendo has sold over 1 billion games on the standard Switch, which is a staggering statistic, and is also the reason why backward compatibility for the Switch 2 was deemed “almost unavoidable” by another analyst.

“Can a successor that doesn’t alter the formula significantly realistically achieve similar or greater success?” Piscatella questions. “It’s feasible, but not likely. Expansion in markets where the Switch had less of a foothold, such as regions outside Japan or the US, is crucial. A robust selection of first-party content is essential, and additional third-party support would certainly be beneficial (though people usually acquire Nintendo consoles to enjoy Nintendo titles). However, to replicate or surpass the Switch’s achievements, some unexpected elements must come into play, along with a bit of good fortune.”

Gameplay footage of a new Mario Kart game was showcased in the Switch 2 reveal trailer, and it seems we may also see some Hollow Knight: Silksong information in the meantime if some developer hints come to light.

“Finding avenues for growth following the peak of the video game market in 2020-2021 has been challenging for everyone,” Piscatella states. “During that time, people were gaming more than ever and spending significant amounts of money, which is hardly surprising. The Switch benefited immensely during that timeframe as well.”

It’s going to be a difficult period for all consoles moving forward, as the market has slowed down since the COVID surge of 2020. Therefore, don’t be surprised if the Switch 2 doesn’t achieve the same sales numbers as its predecessor.

If you’re looking for more updates, check out our Nintendo Switch 2 overview that keeps you informed about all the latest developments.

I am Issy, a freelancer whom you can often find contributing articles on GamesRadar. I have always had a passion for gaming, but I learned how to write about them while pursuing my Film and TV degrees at the University of Warwick and contributing to the student publication, The Boar. After graduating, I worked at TheGamer before leading the news section at Dot Esports. Now, you can find me freelancing for Rolling Stone, NME, Inverse, and many other outlets. I have a deep appreciation for all things horror, narrative-driven, and indie, with my primary gaming experience on my PS5. Currently, I’m working through my backlog and thoroughly enjoying Dishonored 2.