“2025 Predictions: The Rise of GTA 6, AI’s Influence on Sports Development, and More”
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Annually, we consult a group of trusted experts to inquire about their foresight for the future and evaluate their predictions from the previous year.
This year, we have included Niko Partners’ Lisa Cosmas Hanson, Midia Research’s Rhys Elliott, Kantan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto, Ampere Analysis’ Piers Harding-Rolls, and Newzoo’s Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier.
As always, we appreciate all our panelists for participating in this gathering.
Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, Newzoo
2024 Predictions
Nintendo Switch 2 will be the highlight
Incorrect. The Nintendo Switch 2 has been a prominent topic in rumor discussions rather than making its official debut.
Decline of live service dominance and market saturation
Partially accurate. While older live service titles continue to hold sway, newer entries in the sector have seen mixed results, with some achieving short-lived popularity while others struggle to gain traction. The industry is not entirely shifting focus to premium games, yet there’s a growing recognition that the sheer volume of live service options exceeds the time available to gamers. Many players appreciate taking breaks from their ‘daily life’ games to enjoy more finite, cohesive gaming experiences.
Nostalgia plays a significant role in live service titles
Spot on. As major live service games reach significant lifecycle milestones, there is an increasing enthusiasm for revisiting the roots of these games, with players embracing ‘original’ versions of their favorites. This reflects the trend in single-player games with remasters and remakes driven by nostalgia.
Xbox’s strategic pivot towards mobile
Partially accurate. Microsoft is prepared to launch the Xbox app on Android but cannot proceed until a US antitrust ruling is enacted.
“Without significant innovations, consumers may find little incentive to upgrade to Nintendo Switch 2.”
Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, Newzoo
Surge of open-world Souls-like games
Incorrect. While expansions like Shadow of the Erdtree for Elden Ring and releases like Black Fantasy: Wukong have been successful, these do not indicate a notable market shift towards open-world Souls-like games.
AI in game development
True. AI is gradually being incorporated into game development processes, although we have yet to witness a transformative impact. However, its wider acceptance across the industry is inevitable.
The end of multi-game subscription evolution
Animated. In 2024, no groundbreaking developments occurred in subscription offerings. The release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass led to premium-to-subscription cannibalization on Xbox, but continued sales on other platforms balanced this out, leaving trends ambiguous.
Epic Games is doubling down on Fortnite as a platform, including offerings like Fortnite Competition and Lego Fortnite to Fortnite Crew subscriptions without raising prices, aiming to secure players and developers.
Evolution of mobile-to-PC gaming
Incorrect. There has not been a significant shift towards PC ports of mobile games.
2025 Predictions
GTA 6: One game to dominate them all
Grand Theft Auto 6, set for a fall 2025 release, is poised to transform the gaming industry much like its predecessor, GTA 5, which broke records with 32.5 million units sold in its first year. While the market landscape has evolved, Rockstar’s legacy of delivering innovative experiences ensures that GTA 6 will leave a lasting impression.
When GTA 5 debuted in 2013, it capitalized on the waning lifecycle of the PS3 and Xbox 360, appealing to a vast and established audience. In contrast, GTA 6 will release earlier in the PS5 and Xbox Series X|S lifecycle, facing a smaller yet rapidly growing install base. However, the enduring success of GTA Online, with millions of active players, has maintained the franchise’s prominence and fueled tremendous anticipation for GTA 6.
Rockstar’s history of creating genre-defining titles positions GTA 6 to set new industry benchmarks. Its challenge lies in navigating a gaming landscape increasingly dominated by live-service titles. How Rockstar adapts the Grand Theft Auto formula to this evolving environment will not only determine GTA 6’s success but might also redefine the future of open-world gaming.
Why the Nintendo Switch 2 may struggle to surpass its predecessor
The Nintendo Switch 2 faces the challenge of living up to the original Switch’s remarkable success, even with the appeal of backward compatibility as a support incentive.
With over 146 million units sold and bolstered by the pandemic, the original Switch has deeply infiltrated the market, leaving many players satisfied with their current systems. Without groundbreaking enhancements, consumers may see little reason to upgrade. Compounding the challenge, a budget-friendly version of the original Switch – if still available – could attract cost-conscious consumers, diverting attention from the new console.
“The industry is not fully transitioning back to premium games, but there is growing acknowledgment that the sheer volume of live service offerings exceeds players’ available time.”
Emmanuel (Manu) Rosier, Newzoo
For the Switch 2 to make an impact, it will need fresh launch titles or games that fully leverage its hardware advancements. However, no significant exclusives have been announced, leaving uncertainties about how it will distinguish itself. While Nintendo’s track record suggests it may have surprises in store, surpassing the Switch’s extraordinary sales figures appears to be a steep challenge.
Ubisoft: Acquisition, privatization, or dismantling
Ubisoft is at a critical crossroads as financial difficulties and operational missteps have severely affected its stability. Its market value has halved in 2024, reverting to levels not seen since 2015. The disappointing performance of titles like Star Wars Outlaws, XDefiant, and Rainbow Six Extraction, combined with delays of key franchises like Assassin’s Creed Shadows, has intensified the company’s struggles, leaving investors and fans increasingly frustrated and calling for significant change.
Acquisition or privatization appears to be increasingly plausible. Tencent, a significant shareholder in Ubisoft, is a leading candidate for a takeover, although its future merger and acquisition strategies remain uncertain. Privatization could shield Ubisoft from the pressures of the public market, allowing for a comprehensive strategic overhaul. However, both
“`paths risk partial or complete disassembly, as distinctive ownership can also lead to optimizing operations by divesting underperforming studios or non-essential assets.
Fortnite’s Next Chapter: Competing with Steam, PlayStation, and Xbox
Fortnite is rapidly transforming from a popular game into a leading digital distribution platform, ready to challenge established titans like Steam and the PlayStation Store. Current trends highlight its increasing influence in both gaming and entertainment.
On November 30, 2024, Fortnite set a new standard for in-game events with ‘Remix: The Finale,’ a live show featuring performances from Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Ice Spice, along with a tribute to Juice WRLD. The event attracted over 14 million concurrent players and showcased the platform’s unmatched capacity to gather vast audiences and capture cultural moments within its ecosystem.
Epic Games continues to push boundaries by enhancing user-generated content accessibility. The introduction of unique deep links for Fortnite islands allows players to instantly connect to specific experiences through a shared URL. Currently available on PC and Android, this feature streamlines content discovery and boosts player engagement.
Looking ahead to 2025, Fortnite may strengthen its position by advancing creator tools, establishing new strategic partnerships, and promoting open digital marketplaces. These initiatives could indicate its ambition to compete with established digital distribution platforms, reshaping the industry and amplifying its influence as a digital powerhouse.
“The $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition, increasing costs, pressure from evergreen titles, and Sony’s substantial lead leave Xbox with no option but to release all their major titles on PS5 much earlier”
Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games
Weakening of major live-service titles outside of Fortnite and Minecraft
A range of factors are affecting the market landscape. As mentioned earlier, Fortnite continues to expand its reach and maintain its leadership. Meanwhile, Roblox is also experiencing growth not only on mobile devices but also on PC and consoles. Conversely, some games are struggling to attract new players. For competitive genres like MOBAs, high skill requirements can discourage newcomers, while intricate narratives and increasingly complex mechanics may deter players from engaging.
Additionally, 2025 is shaping up to be a landmark year for new game releases. This influx of fresh titles will likely divert time and engagement away from many existing live-service games.
In conclusion, 2025 seems poised to bring a convergence of trends that could pose significant challenges for many traditional live-service titles.
We don’t foresee a successful new F2P multiplayer shooter launch in 2025
Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games
Predictions for 2024
“Switch 2” will arrive and be priced at $400
Incorrect. I might be off by three to six months (the Switch 2 is predicted to launch in the first half of 2025), but I still believe in the other forecasts I made, including the price point – despite potential U.S. tariffs.
Saudi Arabia will make more significant moves
Incorrect. But they publicly announced a major action (a one billion dollar acquisition) planned for 2025 earlier this year.
AI will become a central issue in 2024
Correct. We should see much more of this in the upcoming year.
Square Enix will launch a major IP game incorporating crypto elements
Incorrect.
Predictions for 2025
Xbox will unlock all possibilities and commit fully to PS5
I recognize that Microsoft has already started to release Xbox games on other platforms, but 2025 may be the year they fully embrace this strategy. The $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition, rising costs across the board, the strength of perennial titles, and Sony’s substantial lead will likely compel Microsoft to release all their major games on PS5 sooner, including blockbusters such as Gears of War: E-Day or Perfect Dark.
“Ubisoft will look significantly different by the end of 2025”
Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games
Instant gaming could be on the verge of a significant breakthrough
Instant gaming has quietly built a substantial audience over time, but I believe 2025 could be its breakout year in the West. The concept of not needing to install applications and being able to play across various platforms with robust social features has led to millions of active users on WeChat in China, for example. Just a few weeks ago, Apple enabled in-app purchases for instant games on iOS, a transformative moment this sector of the industry has been waiting for.
Ubisoft will undergo major changes
I hope I’m wrong about this, but I anticipate Ubisoft will close studios and implement significant cutbacks next year. In my view, Assassin’s Creed Shadows will receive real attention and sell well – but not enough to allow Ubisoft to continue business as usual. By the end of 2025, Ubisoft will look quite different from now.
Nintendo will struggle to have enough consoles to sell
Despite Nintendo’s commitments and best efforts, the new system will sell out quickly and will not be available for months in 2025. This situation could be even worse than 2017 when the Switch launched. Furthermore, the name will be Switch 2. I also anticipate substantial price reductions for the original Switch in 2025.
Rhys Elliott, Midia Research
Predictions for 2024
AI will enhance game development
Correct. Over 17,000 games have been released on Steam, compared to around 14,000 last year. AI is also being utilized more prominently. For instance, at EA’s annual ‘Investor Day’ in September 2024, CEO Andrew Wilson stated that AI is “at the very core of the business” and has over “100 active new AI projects” in development.
Video game subscriptions are set to exceed video game sales by threefold
Correct. As of this writing, initial MIDiA projections suggest that by the end of 2024, subscription revenue may increase by about 15%, while revenue from video game purchases could actually decrease.
Another acquisition valued at over $100 million will occur
Correct. Take-Two Interactive acquired Gearbox Interactive for $460 million. Beacon Interactive bought Saber Interactive for $237 million. Turtle Beach purchased Fortnite accessory maker PDP for $118 million.
Video games and social media will vie for time across different formats
Partially Correct. Despite a 5% and 12% rise in time spent on video games and social media, respectively, the share of entertainment time dedicated to video games slightly dropped, while social media saw a minor increase.
Non-gaming companies will intensify their engagement in video games
Correct. Disney invested $1.5 billion in Fable Games to integrate Disney franchises into Fortnite. YouTube Playables, free games available on YouTube, are left somewhat open. LinkedIn has provided New York Times-style games. Following the remarkable success of its Fallout television series, Amazon is producing a Mass Effect series. Video games and social media will vie for time across various formats.
2025 predictions
Ad revenue will become more prevalent on PC and console
After an extended period of steady growth, the video game industry is beginning to encounter growth obstacles. Some game developers will turn to advertising—an area largely untapped on consoles and PCs—to drive growth. Ads will become more prominent at the platform level (Xbox and PlayStation menus) and at the game level (including immersive, interstitial, and rewarded formats).
Moreover, mobile developers are increasingly moving into the console and PC space, bringing their insights on mobile ad monetization. While game developers have experimented with advertising in the past, the revenue potential is more feasible now due to advances in programmatic advertising, which allow for more automated and targeted ads.
Gaming is now top of mind for marketers, driven by a mutual need: the gaming industry and advertisers are both seeking new revenue streams.
“Advertising will become more prominent at both the platform and game levels… The gaming industry and advertisers alike need new revenue streams.”
Rhys Elliott, Midia Research
Portable gaming will surge
Nintendo plans to launch its Switch 2 in 2025, and we anticipate demand for a brand-new Mario Kart and a major Mario title during this launch period. This console is expected to perform well, boosting sales in gaming hardware and console revenues in 2025.
However, this is just the beginning for the upcoming wave of portable gaming. The attention economy is saturated, and Nintendo was clever to release a hybrid handheld that facilitates both at-home play on TVs and portable gaming. Similarly, companion devices like the Steam Deck enhance a player’s main platform (in this instance, a gaming PC). These portable devices offer gamers more ways to engage with their gaming environments, thereby expanding opportunities for game developers to capture a larger share of the attention economy.
Phil Spencer, Xbox’s CEO of gaming, confirmed that Xbox is working on a portable, and leaks reported by Bloomberg suggest that Sony is as well. A portable design would also align with both companies’ recent strategies and current peripheral releases/partnerships, such as the PlayStation Portal (a companion device that allows players to experience their PS5 remotely through its screen via WiFi) and Xbox’s play-anywhere initiatives, including a partnership with the ASUS ROG Ally portable PC.
The age of the portable is approaching.
Multi-game subscriptions will gain prominence
Unlike music and video, game subscriptions may not represent the sole future of distribution anytime soon—however, they will have their place. While a user may listen to countless tracks or watch numerous films or TV episodes in a month, most can only dedicate time to a few games. That’s why multi-game subscriptions are most beneficial for the most devoted gamers.
Most players are already catered to by the free-to-play market—or are satisfied to buy a few games a year individually. Free-tier models and cloud gaming might change this in the long run, but in the coming years, subscriptions are likely to remain a secondary revenue stream for the gaming sector.
Generative AI will challenge game developers and publishers
Generative AI is set to play a larger role in game development moving forward, but its adoption will face challenges in 2025. While game publishers will continue to integrate generative AI to reduce expenses and streamline game creation, the technology will also present difficulties for game developers.
“The era of portable gaming is on the horizon.”
Rhys Elliott, Midia Research
Generative AI is still quite new, and more specific use cases are expected to emerge in 2025, leading to further debate. Increasing numbers of developers will publicly criticize generative AI and mobilize their game communities to do the same. Inevitable, a high-profile game will declare “no AI was utilized in the creation of this game” as part of an advertising campaign.
Creator-led games will begin to reveal their value
Creators and influencers that have gained fame through gaming video content are now focusing their attention—and resources—on game development. For example, popular YouTuber Videogamedunkey has already established his own indie studio, Bigmode. Additionally, several influencer-led game studios are creating gaming experiences using Fable Games’ Unreal Engine for Fortnite (such as Old Gamer with his own studio, JOGO).
These creators are leveraging their audiences (advertising), networks (B2B), and gaming knowledge to cater to their followers and gain traction in the marketplace. In 2025, we expect to see a viral success emerge from one of these influencer-led publishers – or at least a game becoming part of the gaming cultural zeitgeist.
Lisa Cosmas Hanson, Niko Partners
2024 predictions
Asia & MENA will account for over 60% of global PC & Mobile game revenue
Almost correct. Asia & MENA are projected to generate $82 billion in player spending across PC & Mobile in 2024, which is roughly 56% of global revenue in these sectors.
A deal valued at over $2.5 billion (among the top ten of all time) will take place
Correct, but not in Asia. EQT acquired Keywords Studios for nearly $2.4 billion in 2024, though EQT is not based in Asia.
Instant games will surpass one billion MAUs in Asia & MENA
Correct. We believe this prediction was realized with 800 million MAUs for mini/instant games originating solely from WeChat and Douyin in China.
New console hardware will be released in 2024
Correct. While the Nintendo Switch successor was not announced as we previously anticipated, Sony did reveal its PS5 Pro and multiple handheld gaming PCs were also launched.
The new global esports landscape will shift focus outside the West
Correct. This year has seen more high-profile esports events and viewership growth in Asia & MENA compared to the West.
“In 2025, more markets will pressure Apple and Google to dismantle their walled gardens.”
Lisa Cosmas Hanson, Niko Partners
Blizzard will officially reenter China
Correct. Blizzard announced its return in April 2024 and has re-established its partnership.